Al Saud monarchy ruling over Saudi Arabia, notorious for human rights abuses, is now attacking its neighboring Yemen, seeing that its puppet regime is ousted by revolutionaries.
After receiving the full blessing of Washington DC on Monday, Saudi Arabia began its final preparations to try to wipeout a competing faction in Yemen, the Ansarullah movement, who had recently forced Washington and Saudi-backed puppet regime President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi out of power in Sanaa. He fled later south to take refuge in the southern city of Aden. This latest military intervention is seen as a final effort to try to preserve the possibility of reinstalling back into power, Hadi, and avoiding a ‘exiled ruler’ situation.
The fact that Yemen did not attack Saudi Arabia or any of the other Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) allies means that Saudi and its PGCC partners are now in direct violation of international law, specifically the Nuremberg Principles and the Geneva Conventions.
At least 39 civilians have been killed, including at least six children. The death toll will no doubt rise sharply in the coming days. These actions are being carried out with US logistical support, utilizing fighter jets and bombs provided by the United States.
The assault from the air has been accompanied by threats of an imminent ground war spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Saudi Arabia has mobilized approximately 150,000 soldiers, massing troops and heavy artillery on its border with Yemen. US-backed Egyptian dictator Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has indicated that his government, which has already positioned war ships in the Red Sea, is prepared to dispatch troops to Yemen to take part in the assault.
Through a quick reading of a number of studies and research papers and preliminary reports prepared by a number of American studies and research centers, in the framework of keeping pace with the dramatic developments taking place in Yemen upon the start of military aggression on its territory.
What is interesting here is that pessimism is dominant on the reports published by the centers about what is happening in Yemen. Pessimism extends from talking about the situation in the Yemeni arena itself to talking about the implications of what is happening there on the situation in the region, and even at the international level.
"Kenneth Pollack" says in an article posted on the site Brookings Institute that the aggression is a very dangerous escalation that is unlikely to improve the situation in Yemen and risks the stability of Saudi Arabia over the medium to long term. Moreover, the Iranian role has been greatly exaggerated in what is first and foremost a Yemeni civil war.
He further adds that Saudi Arabia with significant internal challenges, financial problems, and now a dramatic shift in government power as a result of the death of King Abdullah and the accession of King Salman. The Kingdom lacks the military capacity to intervene decisively in Yemen, and if it tries by sending in large numbers of ground troops, the most likely outcome would be a debilitating stalemate that will drain Saudi military resources, financial reserves, and political will. It could also easily enrage key segments of the populace: some furious that after spending so much on defense the Kingdom has so little capability, others equally enraged that so much money is being wasted on a senseless quagmire in Yemen instead of being spent on critical domestic problems.
According to what Adam Baron, in an article published in the notorious magazine “Politico”, sees is that the main danger now is that the Western powers, Saudi Arabia or Egypt will overreact and seek to intervene, ostensibly to counter Iranian influence or to quash the efforts of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to gain territory.
In Baron’s opinion yet foreign intervention could very well be the worst approach now—further regionalizing what is still a local fight, injecting a stronger sectarian tone into the conflict while threatening to push Yemen closer to implosion.
Frederic Wehrey in an article published on Carnegie Institute for Studies website points out that the net effect of Saudi's operation is ultimately dangerous for Yemen’s future path. It will open up more fissures on the ground, perhaps bolster the Ansarullah Movement popular support as defenders of Yemeni sovereignty, and create more opportunities for AQAP and the Islamic State to flourish.
He furthers adds that it remains unclear what political end state is envisaged for this operation, which comes months too late to preserve the power of Saudi Arabia’s traditional allies on the ground in Yemen. Pro-Saudi factions, such as the tribal militias of the powerful al-Ahmar family, various Salafi groups, and the government of ousted president Hadi, have all been decisively beaten by the Ansarullah since their southward advance began in earnest in mid-2014. For the moment, and perhaps the foreseeable future, Saudi Arabia lacks a strong ally on the ground to exploit the aerial attacks,
The Saudi regime is reaping the fruits of the failure of its foreign policy since the beginning of the Islamic awakning, which the regime considered a direct threat to the hereditary regime. The Saudi regime stood in the face of the inclination of the masses especially the pro-Islamic movements, which joined the democratic process and succeeded in the elections. The Saudi regime has reaped the enmity of the most horizontally widespread current in the Arab societies but stood alone and found none but new dictatorships to stand by it
The Saudi American aggression on Yemen is not going in the way of achieving its objectives, but it is basically leading Saudi Arabia to drown in the Yemen swamp, which will affect the internal situation in Saudi Arabia itself.