Alwaght- Even though the Yemeni-Yemeni political negotiations failed, many experts on the issue believe that after the Saudi air strikes on Yemen were not successful, the Saudis are forced to make peace with Yemen. These experts do not consider the failure of negotiations in Yemen permanent, in fact they believe in the not too distant future, these peace talks will continue. The abovementioned failed negotiations were between Ansarullah, General People's Congress, the deposed government of Mansour Hadi, and Riyadh representatives. These negotiations took place in Kuwait. Currently, even the Saudis admit that the Ansarullah movement of Yemen is a popular and accepted movement. Thus, it is understandable that the negotiations may have threats and opportunities for Ansarullah. By reviewing the pros and cons of Ansarullah entering the negotiations, the importance and significance of each threat or opportunity can be understood.
The supporters of Ansarullah’s presence in the political negotiations, argue that due to the weakened infrastructure of Yemen, and the loss of a part of Ansarullah during the Saudi war, it is reasonable for this movement to attend the negotiations in order to prevent more losses and also follow its goals at the negotiation table. This argument is valid due to the fact that the resistance of this movement and its clever coalition with General People’s Congress, and the army that is affiliated with the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, have turned this group to an integral part of the political and military process in Yemen. It should also be noted that the importance and power of this group has convinced the opposition group lead by Saudis, to enter negotiations with Ansarullah.
Another group of the supporters that have more realistic views believe that Ansarullah’s participation in the political bargaining process could be considered a practice to strengthen the political power of the movement. Until now, Ansarullah was not able to strengthen its political power due to its military approach, which was under the influence of its operating environment. Participating in the negotiations and forming a coalition government could be an achievement for this group as a general movement in Yemen. That being said, Ansarullah will not be able to take complete control of the government, but it could be part of the official governing power.
The argument of these supporters is that due to the external pressures such as the Saudi attacks, the Security Council, lack of a strategic allie, diversity of local players, prolongation of the situation, and lack of achievement in the negotiations, Ansarullah will be harmed in the short, medium and long term process.
Although the opponents and critics of Ansarullah’s participation in the political negotiations do not disagree with the totality of the negotiations, they also do not consider the subjects present at the negotiation table in favour of Ansarullah, nor do they consider it the right time for this movement’s involvement in the negotiations. In action, force and weaponry play a big role in how the situation turns out. Thus proposing important preconditions such as the hand-over of weaponry and and withdrawal from cities that are under the control of Riyadh, will cause the negotiations to not end in favor of the Ansarullah movement.
Earlier, the Ansarullah spokesman declared that they agree with surrendering the heavy weaponry according to the 2216 resolution of the Security Council. However, the spokesman emphasized that they do not agree with weaponry remaining outside of the government’s hands. The point is, this delivery and handover of weapons should occur in the context of a political agreement, to give the needed assurance to Ansarullah and Saleh's party for negotiating in the current critical path.
The opposition group also believes that in the current anarchic situation, considering that Ansarullah itself is a power pole among multiple dimensions of power, the results of negotiations will not be sustainable. When Yemen has been captivated with disintegration to the point that it is falling, and Al-Qaeda is already marching there, what guarantees the success of Ansarullah in the chaotic situation of Yemen? Even the situation between Ansarullah and Saleh’s party -Ansarullah’s strategic allie- is quite fragile. Hence, this opposition group argues that Ansarullah should insist on not delivering the weaponry and not giving back the seized cities. The opposition also believes that the Ansarullah movement should create a balance in Yemen, so if the current chaotic situation in the country leaned towards a more critical situation, at the very least Ansarullah would be capable of surviving among the conflicting dimensions of power.