Alwaght- Geneva 3 talks, held by Russia’s innovation and the US coordination, from the very beginning, due to the lack of bargaining leverage and political playing cards of supporters and terrorists who were supposed to be present at Geneva 3 talks as representatives of Syrian people but with the nature of Saudi-Turkish and Qatari, faced with excuses and preconditions. So, the preconditions of ceasefire and cessation of air strikes followed seriously as the main priorities. Extensive media, diplomatic, and security pressures on Russia to stop air strikes indicate the importance and effectiveness of these operations. Liberation of Nubl and al-Zahraa due to their great influence on Syria’s battlefield increased the challenges of terrorists and their supporters and resulted in the exit of Riyadh negotiating team from Geneva 3 talks, making de Mistura to suspend talks for three weeks. The Nasr 2 Operation that reached its peak by liberating “Nubl” and “al-Zahraa” on Wednesday (3 February 2016) had decisive impact on military and political developments of Syria. This operation indicated how the ultimate fate of the war in Syria would be. In this regard, there are several important notes:
1. Nasr Operation’s zone is a large area and is considered as “strategic” region because it is located among four provinces of Aleppo, Idlib, Latakia, and Hama and covers extensive border-area between Turkey and Syria. This means that this operation has decisive impact on the security situation of mentioned provinces and Turkey’s border with Syria. That is why we observed a special sensitivity against this operation by US-led so-called anti-Syriancoalition.
2. Nasr Operation zone hosted headquarters of Jabhat al-Nusra and its allied groups and in fact, the command of al-Nusra in this area had a very active connection with Hatay Operation room in Southern Turkey. Indeed al-Nusra was operating under Hatay Operation room’s observation that was formed late in 2012with the presence of US, Britain, Saudi Arabia, and Turky officers along with Israeli officers who were working under American officers’ cover. The tasks of this room are studying Syria’s filed developments and coordinating, directing, and arming terrorist forces in Syria.
During this period, the command room of Jabhat al-Nusra has been directed by Hatay operation room, but due to American’s considerations, this connection was made under the titles of Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam that together form Jabhat al Nusra. Al-Nusra is officially put on terrorist groups list or America black list.
Operation Nasr 2 is of great importance due to the fact that on one hand it disrupted the headquarters of al-Nusra and on the other hand it disconnected mercenary terrorist groups in Syria from their operations room.
3. The victory of Syrian resistance fighters in the front of operation Nasr 2 to a large extent determined the future of Syrian war. The West and its regional allies counted on Jabhat al-Nusra and its two covered groups of “Ahrar al-Sham” and “Jaish al-Islam to take Syria’s control, because members of this group and its affiliates were specially selected from specially trained forces. But simultaneous failures of the terrorist group in northern and southern Syria in the recent days inflicted great harm upon al-Nusra’s situation and turned its hopes of success to disappointment. Heavy defeat of al-Nusra in strategic region of Nasr 2 which occurred on six separate directions and resulted in Syrian army’s domination over the heart of this region had damaging effect on the al-Qaeda affiliated group. Due to the domination of Syrian army over the heart of this region, fighters of the al-Nusra terrorist organization have been surrounded in northern, southern and western Syria and are surrendering or fleeing group by group. Only within two days the number of runaways merely in the northern territory that its distance from Turkish border is about 30 Km has surpassed 10 thousands. At the same time, the number of residents who returned to the liberated areas within these two days has topped 20 thousands. In fact, with these developments, the West and its regional allies have no option but to recalculate their estimations.
4. Following operation Nasr 2, plans of the West in Syria became vein. There were previously talks about creating no fly zone in northern Syria and the US and Turkey’s military ground operations into the country. Although there were already serious obstacles to implement direct intervention plans, Nasr 2 Operation fully took this option off the table. No fly zone was planned to be created over Aleppo and al-Hasakah, but power balance in Aleppo was tipped in favor of Syrian government after Nasr 2 operation. If Nasr 2 Zone was previously divided equally between government and terrorists after the operation Damascus has gained control near 80 percent of this region, particularly strategic positions.
5. Al-Nusra and its affiliated groups made all their efforts to maintain this region. About two months ago when Nasr Operation procedures began, about 4000 new qualified terrorists were dispatched to the area. Saudis and Americans provided them with good quantities of weapon, including a variety of sensitive and smart missiles to save the area. For example, before Nasr Operation Americans were providing Jabhat al-Nusra and its affiliated groups with TOW missiles but at very limited scales and under certain circumstances, while past month, at least 600 Tow 2 missiles have been delivered to this terrorist organization. Calling al-Nusra forces from other parts of Syria and sending them to Nasr operational region indicates their sensitivity towards this region. However, terrorist organization that lost at least 3000 of its fighters and suffered heavy defeat during about last two months was made to leave the region. Nevertheless, Syrian army and its supporting forces have reached two great victories during this operation; victory over enemy’s troops and victory over its weapons.
6. A lot of words have been said about forces who participate in this victorious operation and anyone comments from his point of view in this regard. In fact, the main burden of Operation Nasr 2 was on the shoulders of Syrian army and Syrian forces associated with it and yet the role of the oppressed resistance groups in “Nubl” and “al-Zahraa” as a part of Syrian government forces in this operation is prominent. Undoubtedly, if the resistance forces of Nubl and al-Zahraa did not act from the west of the opration area, the operational accession from the northern Aleppo city to the area was not possible. It should be said that the population of Nubl and al-zahraa before war was about 70 thousands which were mainly Shiite and during the war the population of these cities was reduced to 30 thousands. But this population despite of being surrounded for about 3 years and 8 months stood up bravely and did not leave the area and played a significant role in this operation. During 44 months of siege at least they were exposed to the invasion of Jabhat al-Nusra every two months with the aim of capturing these two cities. In addition to the cities civilians, the role of Lebanon Hezbollah in the west direction of operational front was important and had significant impact on the area. Hezbollah’s task in operational front was more difficult than other forces.
Then, we should consider other players that during the last few years have helped the oppressed people of Syria. Iran played important role in designing the operation, maintaining operational roadmap, providing intelligence, and training fighters. Iran has done its task through direct contact with the field and guiding during the operation but it did not deployed troops at battlefield. Russia’s role in the operation was fire support that took place in the context of detection and request of field commander and of course it was very effective. The West, however, highlighted Russia’s role and its weapons in Nasr Operation success to play down of brave resistance of people and their sacrifices in the face of foreign armament and military power.