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Analysis
A Government of National Unity

A Least Worst Option for Afghanistan

Wednesday 16 July 2014
A Least Worst Option for Afghanistan

Undoubtedly, the extensively enthusiastic political participation is the biggest achievement of the third presidential election in Afghanistan. By considering the sensitive political and security conditions, Afghans wanted to have a government which can revitalize stability, security and peace in their country. After the second round of third presidential election in Afghanistan, Abdullah's campaign team declared that there has been a widespread fraud in the election. The participation of 8 million eligible-to-vote, Afghan voters in this election is a rudimentary question.

Abdullah's Reforms and Convergence campaign team have publicized documents related to fraud including Ziaulhaq Amarkhil's audio tape as Chief Electoral Officer of the IEC and other evidences. According to the evidences, there was a widespread fraud in the presidential election as same as the second presidential election. For this reason, EU and UN confirmed that there has been a widespread fraud.

Based on the Abdullah's allegations, he will suspend cooperation with the IEC. According to Abdullah, all objections should be examined and the dark sides should be clarified. Due to participation of some IEC officials and Abdullah's suspending cooperation with the IEC, the internal, regional and international concerns on this electoral crisis and its consequences have been increased.

In a hurriedly arranged trip after visiting China, Kerry flew into Kabul to meet with both leading presidential candidates and Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai.  Polarization of Afghan society, Afghan civil unrest threatening peace in Afghanistan (clashes between the leading candidates and even against Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai) are among the possibilities of collapsing the America achievement in Afghanistan over the thirteen recent years i.e. Kabul-Washington security agreement.

Abdullah's insisting on audit and recount of votes along with the cleaning of fraudulent votes from clean votes along with the release of preliminary results on scheduled time, and Abdullah's mistrust to election commissions of Afghanistan due to their participation in widespread obvious 2.5 million vote fraud in the presidential election, are among the reasons of Kerry's trip to Kabul.

According to the existing evidences, the leaders of Abdullah's Reforms and Convergence campaign team do not intend to change their side. Accordingly, unrests and chaos are the strong possibilities in the electoral crisis of Afghanistan . On the other hand, Ghani's team 'Change and Continuity' declared that Ashraf Ghani is the winner of the election and Abdullah should accept this fact. According to their words, any move against his victory in this election will obviously violate the Constitution Law. They stated that, they will not let Abdullah form a parallel government and they are against any illegal acts, unilateralism measures, and bullying.

According to the main candidates as well as Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai, there is no electoral crisis in Afghanistan, since there is an extent of fraud in the elections of other countries. Accordingly, there is an attempt to make political atmosphere in an Afghanistan calm in order to hold an inaugural ceremony for the incoming president in the due time i.e. five days after Eid-e Ghorban. In addition, Dr. Abdullah should act based on the Constitution Law.

Therefore, Americans, including senators like John Mason, Lindsey Graham, James Francis Dobbins as the commander of International coalition forces, and James Kingham as the America ambassador to Kabul, have tried to manage and calm this political crisis.  They have attempted to convince Abdullah to accept the conclusion of results by IEC. Accordingly, John Kerry has firstly threatened that the international aids to Afghanistan will be stopped if any illegal acts and forming a parallel government come true. George Ernest, White House Spokesman insisted that baseless allegations should not be attributed to the process of Afghanistan presidential election.

Abdullah Team's insisting on his claim as well as views of figures such as Ata Mohammad Noor, the governor of northern Balkh, and Muhammad Mohaqiq, Member Parliament and Head of Hizb-e-Wahdat  have made America to apply other ways, such as holding a meeting with Abdullah, Ghani and Karzai in order to reach an agreement on the electoral crisis. This meeting has tried to find some ways for auditing & recounting all votes, forming a government of national unity, and investigating all objections and allegation in this regard.

The leading candidates and Afghanistan president have welcomed this audit plan. The main objective of America plan is to satisfy Dr. Abdullah and his team. In fact, Americans pretend that they are trying to solve the electoral crisis in Afghanistan presidential election.

The extensively enthusiastic political participation has been praised by the UN, and even countries such as Germany and England. According to Steinmeier, German foreign minister, despite the threats, Afghans participated in presidential election courageously in both rounds of 2014 presidential election.

The immediate investigating allegation of widespread fraud is needed.  According to German officials, it is Afghans' absolute right to receive a comprehensive explanation in this regard. It is noteworthy that maximum military forces in Afghanistan come from Germany. Therefore, German officials warned that democratic power should not be transferred by the negligence of commission of election.  

By Kerry's attempts, Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah have reached an agreement in audit and recount of all votes. In addition, Hamid Karzai will postpone the inaugural ceremony of a new president in order to recount and audit votes within the next three weeks. After the three weeks, the result, i.e. the winner candidate will be announced and a government of national unity will be formed.

According to the present researcher, the current facts about Afghanistan community and double America vague policies in Afghanistan  indicate that the complete solution of this crisis is not the objective of western countries in particular Americaa.  In fact, government of national unity can diminish the different challenges and threats in Afghanistan.   The increasingly political crises in Afghanistan, Taliban's threads in southern and southeast provinces in general and provinces such as Helmand, Kandahar, Farah, Ghor, and Khost in particular will be lessened by forming a government of national unity. Accordingly, it provides peace and stability in Afghanistan and for Afghans.

There is no sign for forming a government of national unity and this plan can be an interim solution to break the impasse of the presidential election. Kerry's trip to Kabul for election talks and Karzai's support of the obtained agreement will break the current presidential impasse in Afghanistan. Accordingly, it is expected there will be a stable government as government of National Unity. But, it seems that all these agreements try to tranquilize the political aura and break the impasse of the  presidential election. In fact, it is the management of Dr. Abdullah's team and his angry supporters.

There is no government of national unity, since it seems that there are not serious talks or even tendency for a formal negotiation for sharing political power and main positions. It seems that forming a government of national unity is not a practical plan. It is a least worst agenda for delivering power to Ashraf Ghani. Accordingly, the authorities will pretend to audit and recount all votes.

It seems that Dr. Abdullah will voluntarily quit the power. In fact, setting aside Reforms and Convergence team will be another strong possibility. Accordingly, Americans try to convince Dr. Abdullah and his team and manage the political scene of Afghanistan for Ashraf Ghani. It is noteworthy that Washington-Kabul security agreement is the main aim of America. In the next stage, a share of political power will be given to the conservative Taliban. In Ghani's presidency, this agreement will be put into operation.

 

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